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All that the doctrine of chances can do is to say
what will happen in the long run. For example,
suppose a pair of dice to be thrown. Call
them die M, and die N. Now we know that
die M will turn up an ace once in six times, or
six times out of thirty six, in the long run,
and that die N will not only in the long run turn up a
deuce once in six times, but will do so in the long run
once in six of those six times out
thirty six in which die M turns up an ace.
Therefore, once in thirty-six times in the long
run M will turn up an ace and N a deuce,
and by parity of reasoning, and then once
in thirty six times M will turn up a deuce
and N an ace; so that deuce-ace will
in the long run be thrown twice in thirty-six