MS 842 (1908) - A Neglected Argument - Early Drafts

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be free to use the prediction if he likes? Not at all: the validity of his qualitative de induction will be found to depend upon his following a rational and decisive method; and he has no more right, but rather less, to favor the inductive ad rejection of the retroductive suggestion, than to favor its inductive adoption; and he is bound, as a man who means to reason as honestly as the imperfections of his nature and training will permit, to take admit the true prediction into his counsels. The predictions must eventually be so varied as to test every feature of the hypothesis; yet the interests of science command

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constant attention to economy, especially in the earlier parts of the Inductive stages of the research.

Having made his initial predictions the investigator proceeds to ascertain their truth or falsity; and then, having taken account of such subsidiary arguments as there may be, goes on to judge of the combined value of the evidence, and to decide whether the hypothesis should be regarded as proved, or as well on the way toward being proved, or as unworthy of further attention, or whether it ought to be

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be receive a definite modification in the light of the new experiments and be inductively reexamined ab ovo, or whether finally that while not true it probably presents some analogy to the truth, and that the results of the induction may help to suggest a better hypothesis.

I will now state, with slight hints of argument the conclusions to which I have reached as to the warrant, or basis of validity, of the inferential processes of in the three stages of inquiry. I have been actively studying this

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subject, for the sake of completely satisfying myself my own mind about it, for 50 or 51 years. To be sure, I have, some half dozen times during the half-century, let my mind lie fallow, as to this subject, during one or two dozens of months, hoping so to rid myself of any inveterate bad habits of thinking that I may have insensibly have fallen into. I have six times published my views (in 1867, 1869, 1878, 1882, 1892, and 1902 in 1867, -69, -78, -82, -92, and 1902.) The last of those publications, compared with my present abridged brief abstract,

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shows that my last week of years has, by no means been an idle one, and encourages me to hope that I may yet be able to detect errors and omissions in my views, even if others do not confer upon me the benefit of learning of them pointing them out such amendments. such faults (New π)

In regard to the theory of the validity of Induction the great majority still follow the System of Logic set forth in 1839 by John Stuart Mill, who was certainly a clear thinker, and apparently a remarkably candid thinker, in spite of his long training in writing