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108

Has this any necessary bearing on what the
communion of the next man we meet may
be? Mind, I grant at once that some kind
of argument might be founded upon it. But
we are talking of arguments capable of being
deduced mathematically; for the calculus
of probabilities confines itself to mathematical
reasoning. Two things are possible either
that we meet successively four baptists
or that we meet three baptists first and
then a non-baptist. Now if these events
are independent, which is the only case
in which the calculus can be applied at all
then representing by b the probability of a
man met on that road being a baptist
the probabilities of the two cases that are

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