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106

half day would be (N+1)/(N+2). But what is the long
run of experience that this represents?
The tide it is said would be found to rise the
next half day in N + I cases out of every
N + 2 taken at random. But what are these
N + 2 cases, I ask. They will say, I suppose, that they
are the cases in which I observe a new phenomenon
on N successive occasions. But it is impossible
to suppose any solid statistics with such
vague conditions. It all depends on what sort
of facts one would call a new phenomenon.
I go out with a friend for a walk in the
country. We successively meet three
acquaintances and my companion
remarks that all three were baptists.

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