39

78

But what we must know is that , supposing
the state of things does not undergo any
change that makes any material difference
in the result, that same ratio would hold
good in the long run. A sufficiently clear understanding
of the doctrine of chances to make
it safe to apply it to any novel case
requires an accurate conception of what
a long run is.
We shall soon have to give our
closest attention to this matter. But it will
be best to begin by taking note of all
the elements of the problem, so that we
may know what are the nice points
that require analysis. We must not [only]